{"id":449,"date":"2026-07-27T14:42:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T14:42:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businessmovingservicess.com\/?p=449"},"modified":"2026-07-27T14:42:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T14:42:15","slug":"the-country-isnt-ready-how-an-electability-myth-became-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businessmovingservicess.com\/?p=449","title":{"rendered":"\u2018The Country Isn\u2019t Ready\u2019: How an Electability Myth Became a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n\tTwo of the most popular political figures in America right now are a democratic socialist from the Bronx and a gay man from Indiana.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Dylan Mulvaney\u00a0Responds to Trump Attacking Her and Kaitlan Collins in WHCD Speech<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\tLast week, the University of New Hampshire\u2019s Granite State Poll \u2014 a long-running survey widely used as an early bellwether in one of the nation\u2019s first primary states \u2014 found them statistically deadlocked among prospective 2028 Democratic primary voters: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York leads the field at 22 percent, with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg just one point behind.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s not just a New Hampshire thing. A national poll released by Emerson College last Thursday found Buttigieg leading the Democratic field outright at 19 percent, with Ocasio-Cortez tied for third at 13. In May, a national AtlasIntel had Ocasio-Cortez leading the field nationally, with Buttigieg in second.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tYet, with the midterms just four months away, and presidential primaries two years out, conversations about their electability have already begun.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n\tThe question, as always, is whether the country is ready for the likes of Ocasio-Cortez, a Puerto Rican bartender-turned-congresswoman and self-described democratic socialist; or Buttigieg, an openly gay father of two who already swung and missed during his run six years ago.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tBut if decades of polling, voting, and peer-reviewed research are to be believed, voters themselves are rarely the problem.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nPhantom Electorate\u00a0<\/strong> <\/h2>\n

\n\tThe most influential voter in American presidential politics has never cast a ballot, been polled or focus-grouped. Yet, every election year, they materialize as a figment of the country\u2019s collective political imagination; a vast, faceless electorate spread across its endless counties and exurbs. These hypothetical voters are, by all accounts, a remarkably consistent bunch \u2014 unmoved by data, indifferent to the current political moment, unswayed by decades of change. They are the last Americans for whom the optics of the Oval Office must match the portraits in the hallway.<\/p>\n

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\n\tThis question of electability on identity grounds \u2014 whether a candidate is straight, white, or male enough to earn the country\u2019s votes \u2014 is far from new. It is a shadow of doubt that has trailed so-called \u201cunconventional\u201d candidates for decades, invoked almost exclusively in the third person. \u201cI would vote for him or her in a heartbeat,\u201d the thinking goes, \u201cbut voters would never.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tBy the time Barack Obama ran for president in 2008, for example, more than nine in 10 Americans told the they would vote for a Black presidential candidate nominated by their party \u2014 up from 70 percent when the question was asked three decades prior. Yet, days after Obama won the Iowa caucuses, veteran Democratic fundraiser Robert Farmer, national treasurer of four Democratic presidential campaigns, published an op-ed in The Washington Post<\/em>. He withdrew his support for Obama on the grounds that the first-term Illinois senator \u201cwould be the object of an unbelievably negative advertising campaign.\u201d Clinton, who had \u201calready been vetted beyond imagination,\u201d was more electable, Farmer said.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe same rhetoric is alive and well today \u2014 dressed in the language of pragmatism, but functioning as something closer to preemptive surrender \u2014 as donors, operatives, and party insiders narrow the field on voters\u2019 behalf, based on who they believe those voters will accept.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tBut with the midterms approaching, and the 2028 presidential field already taking shape, voters are about to be told, again, who they are and are not ready for. The stakes of this particular bias have rarely been higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u2018It\u2019s Not Me, It\u2019s You\u2019\u00a0<\/strong> <\/h2>\n

\n\tTo better understand this phenomenon, consider the example of a political candidate you may never have heard of.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn 2018, Regina Bateson \u2014 a Stanford-educated political scientist and former U.S. diplomat\u00a0 \u2014 entered the Democratic primary for California\u2019s 4th Congressional District, a red-leaning stretch of the Sierra Nevada foothills that had been held by Republican men for decades.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tShe expected the usual obstacles: an incumbent-friendly district, a thin donor network, a party infrastructure slow to commit. What she found instead became the subject of a striking 2020 peer-reviewed study, in which Bateson herself describes a pattern of voters discriminating against a candidate \u201cout of concern that others<\/em> will object to the candidate\u2019s identity.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n\tAgain and again, in living rooms and community halls across rural stretches of Northern California, Bateson heard some version of the same thing. The voters liked her. What they couldn\u2019t vouch for was each other. She ultimately ended her race in third, and went away wondering if what she had experienced on the campaign trail was an anomaly or a systemic pattern.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tBateson\u2019s study, conducted through MIT\u2019s Political Experiments Research Lab (PERL), drew on three separate experiments involving nearly 6,000 Americans. The sample was designed to match census demographics, and weighted for political knowledge and engagement. Her findings showed \u201cthe majority of subjects overestimate others\u2019 levels of sexism and racism,\u201d and that \u201cconcern about others\u2019 biases could be causing individuals to doubt the electability of diverse candidates.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tA Black female candidate with identical qualifications to a white male, for example, was rated 20 percent less electable. And among her study\u2019s most politically engaged and informed subjects \u2014 those most likely to be donors, activists, and party insiders \u2014 the gap widened. Among subjects most likely to shape a primary \u2014 politically attentive, plugged-in party people \u2014the bias widened, tracking less with their own prejudice than with how biased they assumed everyone else was.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cAs polarization makes partisans increasingly desperate to win general elections, donors, party activists, and voters may gravitate toward white, male primary candidates who seem like a safe bet, rather than taking a risk on a woman or a person of color,\u201d Bateson wrote. \u201cThat\u2019s strategic discrimination in action.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tHer findings did not stand alone. Two years later, researchers at Stanford University arrived at the same conclusion from a different angle. Across six experiments involving nearly 8,000 more Americans, their study found unambiguously that voters who personally preferred a woman candidate would nonetheless shift their support to a man if they felt she was unlikely to win.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cPeople base their sense of what is possible on what they have seen happen in the past,\u201d the Stanford researchers wrote. \u201cOften this makes a lot of sense, but it can also be an overly conservative force, slowing social changes that most people would like.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tThe argument has powerful allies not limited to the donor class.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIn her campaign memoir 107 Days<\/em>, Kamala Harris revealed that Pete Buttigieg had been her first choice for running mate, writing that he \u201cwould have been an ideal partner \u2014 if I were a straight white man.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n\tHarris\u2019s reasoning echoes the double bind Quinnipiac captured in voters years earlier. A Quinnipiac University poll from 2019 found that 70 percent of voters \u2014 85 percent of Democrats and nearly half of Republicans \u2014 were willing to vote for a gay president. But more than half of those same voters believed the country itself was not ready.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIn her first television interview after the book\u2019s release, MSNBC\u2019s Rachel Maddow \u2014 who is gay \u2014 pressed her directly. \u201cTo be a Black woman running for president of the United States, and as a vice presidential running mate, a gay man \u2014 with the stakes being so high, it made me very sad,\u201d Harris told her. \u201cBut I also realized it would be a real risk.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tAfter Harris lost in 2024, former First Lady Michelle Obama, one of the most credible messengers in American public life, sat before a crowd of women at the Brooklyn Academy of Music and gave the electability argument its most prominent public airing in years. \u201cYou all are lying,\u201d she told them. \u201cYou\u2019re not ready for a woman. You are not.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Trump May Be to Blame for Less Accurate Weather Forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n

\nIs the Country Ready?\u00a0<\/strong> <\/h2>\n

\n\tFor all the rhetoric surrounding the country\u2019s willingness \u2014 or unwillingness \u2014 to elect a woman as commander in chief, it has come within a rounding error of doing so twice, in two of the most turbulent political environments in modern American history.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn 2016, Hillary Clinton outpaced Donald Trump by nearly three million votes \u2014 65.8 million to his 63 million; a margin of 2.1 percent. She lost the Electoral College on 78,000 votes across three counties in Wisconsin, a margin so thin that a shift of roughly one percent in a single mid-sized city would have changed the outcome. Clinton wasn\u2019t shot down by the voters. She was undone by a structural feature of the American system that sorts votes rather than counts them, a system that has now twice in 20 years elevated the popular vote loser<\/em> to the presidency.<\/p>\n

\n\tEight years later, Kamala Harris \u2014 stepping into a race handed to her 107 days before Election Day, the shortest major-party presidential campaign in modern history \u2014 lost the popular vote by less than one and a half points. She fell short by fewer than 230,000 votes out of 155 million, and still finished with the third-most votes of any presidential candidate in American history.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn both cases, Donald Trump declared historic victory. Having lost the popular vote to Clinton in 2016, he called it a \u201cmassive landslide.\u201d And in 2024, having beaten Harris by a razor-thin margin \u2014 the narrowest for a winning candidate since Nixon, in fact \u2014 he told supporters it was \u201cthe most epic political victory our country has ever seen.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n\tWhat those margins actually show tends to get lost in the aftermath. The votes, in the end, do not describe a country that has made up its mind against women, but one that is more ready than it has ever been to elevate them to the highest office in the land.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnter Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIn a poll last December, the 36-year-old congresswoman from New York\u2019s 14th District, was statistically tied with JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 matchup \u2014 51 to 49, within the margin of error. The internals were the most crucial: she carried Black voters by nearly 60 points, Hispanic voters by 28, and women by 12. Among voters aged 18 to 29, she led by 16 points. Harris won the same demographic by just four points. Eight percent of people who voted for Trump in 2024 said they would pick her over Vance. Her favorability has more than tripled among conservatives in her home state since 2019, climbing from six percent to 21 percent in a recent Siena College .<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen asked by a reporter outside the Capitol whether she thought she could beat Vance, Ocasio-Cortez laughed. \u201cListen, these polls, like three years out, they are what they are. But let the record show: I would stomp him. I would stomp him.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tThe polling, of course, is just one data point in a constellation.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen she beat 10-term incumbent Joe Crowley in 2018 \u2014 one of the most stunning upsets in congressional history \u2014 the political class quickly returned to the question it always asks: Yes, but can she win a general election? Just weeks prior, Ocasio-Cortez began a viral campaign video with the words: \u201cWomen like me aren\u2019t supposed to run for office.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tThe morning after her victory, then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi stepped in to contain the moment. \u201cThey made a choice in one district,\u201d she told reporters. \u201cIt is not to be viewed as something that stands for everything else.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tSince then, Ocasio-Cortez has been called too radical, too socialist, too far left, too confrontational, too online, too young, too inexperienced, and too dumb \u2014 the same \u201cstrategic discrimination\u201d Regina Bateson tackled in her post-campaign study. And her base \u2014 young, diverse, working-class, and enthusiastic \u2014 is, in the coded language of Democratic strategy, the wrong kind of coalition for a general election.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tYet, according to Federal Election Commission filings, Ocasio-Cortez raised more than $23.6 million in 2025 alone, entirely from individual donors. Not a dollar of it has come from corporate PACs, which she has rejected as a matter of official policy since her first campaign. In the first half of 2025, she ranked third on ActBlue, the Democratic Party\u2019s largest fundraising platform, trailing only the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Senate campaign arm \u2014 outpacing every individual candidate including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) itself, according to CNN.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n\tBut the pundit class remains undeterred in dismissing her chances.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tJames Carville, the operative who built Bill Clinton\u2019s path to the White House, told Newsmax\u2019s Greta Van Susteren last week that Ocasio-Cortez is \u201cremarkably talented\u2026but she\u2019s not gonna run for president because she\u2019s not gonna have any chance.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen asked to speculate on a possible 2028 run herself, Ocasio-Cortez \u2014 who has built one of the most formidable grassroots political operations in American politics \u2014 didn\u2019t take the bait. \u201cThey assume that my ambition is a title or a seat,\u201d she told David Axelrod at an event in May. \u201cMy ambition is to change this country.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tBut Ocasio-Cortez is not the only one the electability argument has circled recently.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile she was on stage with Axelrod at the University of Chicago in May, Pete Buttigieg was nearly a thousand miles away in New Hampshire \u2014 his third visit to an early primary state since leaving the Cabinet \u2014 doing what candidates who are definitely not running for president sometimes do. Since stepping down as secretary of transportation, Buttigieg has traveled to more than a dozen states, stumping for local candidates in battleground districts, holding town halls in red-state communities, and building the kind of ground-level infrastructure that could support a presidential campaign in a couple years\u2019 time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tThis month, he was the keynote speaker at the Liberty and Justice Celebration dinner \u2014 the Iowa Democratic Party\u2019s flagship annual fundraiser, where Barack Obama\u2019s 2007 performance is widely credited with turning the tide of the 2008 caucuses in his favor.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe numbers have started to reflect the effort.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen Buttigieg ran for president in 2020, he won the first nominating contest of the Democratic primary and nearly won the second, outlasting Harris, Booker, and a dozen others who had arrived with far more institutional support. For approximately two weeks, he was the frontrunner, but ran out of road, stalling at around 10 percent nationally when he failed to hold younger voters against Sanders, or compete with Biden\u2019s decades of accumulated trust in Black communities. An early Quinnipiac poll had him at support among Black Democratic primary voters \u2014 a number that captured, in a single data point, how much ground he still had to make up. He dropped out of the race two days before Super Tuesday. Six years later, a 2025 Emerson poll on the 2028 field found him still lagging with Black voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n\tBut 2026 is not 2020. No single poll currently settles the question of who\u2019s actually leading the Democratic field, but what holds steady across nearly all of them is this: the two candidates most frequently dismissed on identity grounds \u2014 Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez \u2014 are, by current available data, rising together as two of the strongest candidates the Democratic Party has.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tThe data surrounding them suggests an appeal that transcends the primary electorate either of them would need to win in 2028.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tOn the Republican side, the 2028 field is taking shape around familiar names, such as\u00a0 Marco Rubio and JD Vance. The same AtlasIntel poll that has Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field also shows Rubio \u2014 the most favorable Republican tested \u2014 sitting at net negative five points nationally. The electability conversation, notably, is not happening on that side of the aisle.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tThat election, now less than two and a half years away, will arrive in the wake of a second Trump presidency that has ravaged the economy, started a war with Iran, betrayed the trust of allies, corrupted whole layers of American bureaucracy, and created a foreign policy landscape so thoroughly disrupted that it has forced the Democratic Party to reckon with what it actually believes. These are the hurdles candidates must clear in the path to the presidency. None of them, however, have anything to do with gender or sexual orientation.<\/p>\n

\n\tVoters, for their part, have a different obstacle ahead of them: what they assume about each other.<\/p>\n

\nAlex Ashley is a journalist and writer based in Los Angeles and Seattle. His reporting has appeared in Rolling Stone, The Atlantic, NPR, and other national outlets.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Pentagon Says Some Servicemember Deaths Don\u2019t Count<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is America “ready” for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Pete Buttigieg to be president? 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